Climate Change 202f4r

Climate Change: Potential Impact in the Environment

Krizia Choi

What is climate change? Is a significant time variation in weather patterns occurring over periods ranging from decades to millions of years.  Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather around longerterm average conditions (i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events).  Climate change is caused by factors such as biotic processes, variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change

What is climate change? Certain human activities have also been identified as significant causes of recent climate change, often referred to as "global warming"  This cause impacts on health, agriculture, forest, water resources, coastal areas, and species and natural areas 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change

Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly the burning of fossil fuels – have released sufficient quantities of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to trap additional heat in the lower atmosphere and affect the global climate.  In the last 100 years, the world has warmed by approximately 0.75oC. Each of the last 3 decades has been http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs266/en/ successively warmer than any preceding 

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Climate change Sea levels are rising, glaciers are melting and precipitation patterns are changing. Extreme weather events are becoming more intense and frequent.  Climate change affects the social and environmental determinants of health – clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food and secure shelter. 

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs266/en/

Climate change Climate change has brought about severe and possibly permanent alterations to our planet’s geological, biological and ecological systems  The Intergovernmental on Climate Change (IPCC) contended in 2003 that “there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities”. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_huma

Climate change 

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These changes have led to the emergence of large-scale environmental hazards to human health, such as extreme weather, ozone depletion, loss of biodiversity, stresses to foodproducing systems and the global spread of infectious The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 160,000 deaths, since 1950, are directly attributable to climate change. Many believe this to be a conservative estimate


Climate change 

The majority of the adverse effects of climate change are experienced by poor and low-income communities around the world, who have much higher levels of vulnerability to environmental determinants of health, wealth and other factors, and much lower levels of capacity available for coping with environmental change.


Climate change 

A report on the global human impact of climate change published by the Global Humanitarian Forum in 2009, estimated more than 300,000 deaths and about $125 billion in economic losses each year, and indicating that most climate change induced mortality is due to worsening floods and droughts in developing countries


Health impact 

Climate change poses a wide range of risks to population health - risks that will increase in future decades, often to critical levels, if global climate change continues on its current trajectory.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_hum

Health impact 

The three main categories of health risks include: ◦ (i) direct-acting effects (e.g. due to heat waves, amplified air pollution, and physical weather disasters), ◦ (ii) impacts mediated via climate-related changes in ecological systems and relationships (e.g. crop yields, mosquito ecology, marine productivity), and ◦ (iii) the more diffuse (indirect) consequences relating to impoverishment, displacement, resource conflicts (e.g. water), and postdisaster mental health problems.


Health impact A warmer and more variable climate leads to higher levels of some air pollutants and more frequent extreme weather events.  It increases the rates and ranges of transmission of infectious diseases through unclean water and contaminated food, and by affecting vector organisms (such as mosquitoes) and intermediate or reservoir host species that harbor the infectious agent (such as cattle, bats and rodents). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_hum 

Health impact 

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Changes in temperature, rainfall and seasonality compromise agricultural production in many regions, including some of the least developed countries, thus jeopardizing child health and growth and the overall health and functional capacity of adults. As warming proceeds, the severity (and perhaps frequency) of weather-related disasters will increase - and appears to have done so in a number of regions of the world over the past several decades


Health impact 

Therefore, in summary, global warming, together with resultant changes in food and water supplies, can indirectly cause increases in a range of adverse health outcomes, including malnutrition, diarrhea, injuries, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and water-borne and insecttransmitted diseases.


Health impact Extreme high air temperatures contribute directly to deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory disease, particularly among elderly people. In the heat wave of summer 2003 in Europe for example, more than 70 000 excess deaths were recorded2.  High temperatures also raise the levels of ozone and other pollutants in the air that exacerbate cardiovascular and respiratory disease.  Pollen and other aeroallergen levels are also higher in extreme heat. These can trigger asthma, which affects around 300 million people. Ongoing temperature increases are expected to increase this burden. 


Health impact Globally, the number of reported weatherrelated natural disasters has more than tripled since the 1960s. Every year, these disasters result in over 60 000 deaths, mainly in developing countries.  Rising sea levels and increasingly extreme weather events will destroy homes, medical facilities and other essential services. More than half of the world's population lives within 60 km of the sea. People may be forced to move, which in turn heightens the risk of a range of health effects, from mental disorders to communicable diseases. 


Health impact Increasingly variable rainfall patterns are likely to affect the supply of fresh water.  A lack of safe water can compromise hygiene and increase the risk of diarrheal disease, which kills almost 600 000 children aged under 5, every year. 


Health impact 

In extreme cases, water scarcity leads to drought and famine. By the 2090s, climate change is likely to widen the area affected by drought, double the frequency of extreme droughts and increase their average duration sixfold


Agricultural impact 

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Global warming is projected to have significant impacts on conditions affecting agriculture, including temperature, carbon dioxide, glacial runoff, precipitation and the interaction of these elements. These conditions determine the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for the human population and domesticated animals. The overall effect of climate change on agriculture will depend on the balance of these effects.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_agricult


At the same time, agriculture has been shown to produce significant effects on climate change, primarily through the production and release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, but also by altering the Earth's land cover, which can change its ability to absorb or reflect heat and light, thus contributing to radiative forcing.



Land use change such as deforestation and desertification, together with use of fossil fuels, are the major anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide; agriculture itself is the major contributor to increasing methane and nitrous oxide concentrations in Earth's atmosphere



Climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways : ◦ productivity, in of quantity and quality of crops ◦ agricultural practices, through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural inputs such as herbicides, insecticides and fertilizers ◦ environmental effects, in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil drainage (leading to nitrogen leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity ◦ rural space, through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land renunciation, and hydraulic amenities. ◦ adaptation, organisms may become more or less competitive, as well as humans may develop urgency to develop more competitive organisms, such as flood resistant or salt resistant varieties of rice.


Agricultural impact So far, the effects of regional climate change on agriculture have been relatively limited. Changes in crop phenology provide important evidence of the response to recent regional climate change.  Phenology is the study of natural phenomena that recur periodically, and how these phenomena relate to climate and seasonal changes.  A significant advance in phenology has been observed for agriculture and forestry in large parts of the Northern http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_agricult Hemisphere. 


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Droughts have been occurring more frequently because of global warming and they are expected to become more frequent and intense in Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Their impacts are aggravated because of increased water demand, population growth, urban expansion, and environmental protection efforts in many areas. Droughts result in crop failures and the loss of pasture grazing land for livestock


Agricultural impact climate change could make it more difficult to grow crops, raise animals, and catch fish in the same ways and same places as we have done in the past.  The effects of climate change also need to be considered along with other evolving factors that affect agricultural production, such as changes in farming practices and http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impactstechnology. 

Agricultural impact Warmer temperatures may make many crops grow more quickly, but warmer temperatures could also reduce yields.  Crops tend to grow faster in warmer conditions.  However, for some crops (such as grains), faster growth reduces the amount of time that seeds have to grow and mature.  This can reduce yields (i.e., the amount of crop produced from a given amount of http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/agriculture.html land). 


For any particular crop, the effect of increased temperature will depend on the crop's optimal temperature for growth and reproduction. In some areas, warming may benefit the types of crops that are typically planted there. However, if warming exceeds a crop's optimum temperature, yields can decline.

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/agriculture.html

Agricultural impact Higher CO2 levels can increase yields. The yields for some crops, like wheat and soybeans, could increase by 30% or more under a doubling of CO2concentrations. The yields for other crops, such as corn, exhibit a much smaller response (less than 10% increase).  However, some factors may counteract these potential increases in yield. For example, if temperature exceeds a crop's optimal level or if sufficient water and nutrients are not available, yield increases may be reduced or reversed. 

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/agriculture.html

Agricultural impact More extreme temperature and precipitation can prevent crops from growing. Extreme events, especially floods and droughts, can harm crops and reduce yields. For example, in 2008, the Mississippi River flooded just before the harvest period for many crops, causing an estimated loss of $8 billion for farmers.  Dealing with drought could become a challenge in areas where summer temperatures are projected to increase and precipitation is projected to decrease. As water supplies are reduced, it may be more http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/agriculture.html difficult to meet water demands. 

Agricultural impact Many weeds, pests and fungi thrive under warmer temperatures, wetter climates, and increased CO2 levels. Currently, farmers spend more than $11 billion per year to fight weeds in the United States.  The ranges of weeds and pests are likely to expand northward. This would cause new problems for farmers' crops previously unexposed to these species. Moreover, increased use of pesticides and fungicides may negatively http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/agriculture.html affect human health 

Agricultural impact The warmer atmospheric temperatures observed over the past decades are expected to lead to a more vigorous hydrological cycle, including more extreme rainfall events. Erosion and soil degradation is more likely to occur.  Soil fertility would also be affected by global warming. However, because the ratio of carbon to nitrogen is a constant, a doubling of carbon is likely to imply a higher storage of nitrogen in soils as nitrates, thus providing higher fertilizing elements for plants, providing better yields. The average needs for nitrogen could decrease, and give the opportunity of changing often http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture costly fertilization strategies. 

Agricultural impact Due to the extremes of climate that would result, the increase in precipitations would probably result in greater risks of erosion, whilst at the same time providing soil with better hydration, according to the intensity of the rain.  The possible evolution of the organic matter in the soil is a highly contested issue: while the increase in the temperature would induce a greater rate in the production of minerals, lessening the soil organic matter content, the atmospheric CO2 concentration would tend to increase it 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture

Agricultural impact Climate change may increase the amount of arable land in high-latitude region by reduction of the amount of frozen lands.  A 2005 study reports that temperature in Siberia has increased three degree Celsius in average since 1960 (much more than the rest of the world).  However, reports about the impact of global warming on Russian agriculture indicate conflicting probable effects : while they expect a northward extension of farmable lands, they also warn of possible productivity losses and increased risk of drought. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture

Agricultural impact Sea levels are expected to get up to one meter higher by 2100, though this projection is disputed. A rise in the sea level would result in an agricultural land loss, in particular in areas such as South East Asia  Erosion, submergence of shorelines, salinity of the water table due to the increased sea levels, could mainly affect agriculture through inundation of lowlying lands http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture 

Agricultural impact Low lying areas such as Bangladesh, India and Vietnam will experience major loss of rice crop if sea levels rise as expected by the end of the century. Vietnam for example relies heavily on its southern tip, where the Mekong Delta lies, for rice planting.  Any rise in sea level of no more than a meter will drown several km2 of rice paddies, rendering Vietnam incapable of producing its main staple and export of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture 

Forest impact Climate change is threatening the health of forests around the world. As temperatures rise, weather patterns and the availability of water also change, altering the ability of trees to survive.  Canada's forests cover almost half of the country's landmass and make up 10 per cent of the world's forest cover. Forests are a crucial part of Canada's natural heritage, wilderness areas and economy.  Although more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may encourage tree growth, the negative impacts of climate change are expected to far outweigh any benefits. 

http://www.davidsuzuki.org/issues/climate-change/science/impacts/forest-

Forest impact Although scientists predict an increase in precipitation due to climate change, it will likely not be sufficient to keep up with increased evaporation from rising summer temperatures.  This will lead to decreased soil moisture, which will cause more drought-resistant trees or grasslands to displace existing forest ecosystems 


Forest impact As hotter, drier summers increase evaporation they will also increase the risk of forest fires across most of Canada, and increase the severity of those fires.  According to the government of Canada, both fire frequency in Canada's boreal forest and total area burned have increased over the last 20 to 40 years. 


Forest impact Warmer temperatures are also expected to expand the ranges and enhance the survival rates of forest pests such as the spruce budworm and the mountain pine beetle.  Infestations of the mountain pine beetle are normally controlled by intense cold snaps in the winter, but warmer winters have been one factor enabling the infestation to grow into an epidemic in British Columbia's Interior forests.  Over 50% of B.C.'s commercially valuable pine timber has already been lost due to the infestation of the mountain pine beetle. 


Forest impact Climate changes directly and indirectly affect the growth and productivity of forests: directly due to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate and indirectly through complex interactions in forest ecosystems.  Climate also affects the frequency and severity of many forest disturbances 

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/forests.html

Water resources impact Climate change is creating major consequences for water resources through its impacts on the planet’s hydrology.  Hydrology, a physical science, encomes the distribution, movement, and quality of water in the Earth system.  Water resources, a social science, covers the use of water by humans through agricultural, industrial, domestic, recreational, and other activities. Hence, by altering water’s distribution, movement and quality, climate change is causing humans to adjust the ways they use water. 

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog438w/node/240

Water resources impact 

Water resources are important to both society and ecosystems. We depend on a reliable, clean supply of drinking water to sustain our health. We also need water for agriculture, energy production, navigation, recreation, and manufacturing.

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/water.html


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Many of these uses put pressure on water resources, stresses that are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. In many areas, climate change is likely to increase water demand while shrinking water supplies. This shifting balance would challenge water managers to simultaneously meet the needs of growing communities, sensitive ecosystems, farmers, ranchers, energy producers, and manufacturers.



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The water cycle is a delicate balance of precipitation, evaporation, and all of the steps in between. Warmer temperatures increase the rate of evaporation of water into the atmosphere, in effect increasing the atmosphere's capacity to "hold" water. Increased evaporation may dry out some areas and fall as excess precipitation on other areas.


Water resources impact Changes in the amount of rain falling during storms provide evidence that the water cycle is already changing.  Over the past 50 years, the amount of rain falling during the most intense 1% of storms increased by almost 20%. Warming winter temperatures cause more precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow.  Furthermore, rising temperatures cause snow to begin melting earlier in the year. This alters the timing of stream flow in rivers that have their sources in mountainous areas. 


Water resources impact As temperatures rise, people and animals need more water to maintain their health and thrive. Many important economic activities, like producing energy at power plants, raising livestock, and growing food crops, also require water.  The amount of water available for these activities may be reduced as Earth warms 


Water resources impact Many areas of the United States, especially the West, currently face water supply issues. The amount of water available in these areas is already limited, and demand will continue to rise as population grows.  The West has experienced less rain over the past 50 years, as well as increases in the severity and length of droughts; this has been especially of concern in the Southwest 


Water resources impact In the western part of the United States, future projections for less total annual rainfall, less snowpack in the mountains, and earlier snowmelt mean that less water will likely be available during the summer months when demand is highest.  This will make it more difficult for water managers to satisfy water demands throughout the course of the http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/water.html year 

Water resources impact Water quality could suffer in areas experiencing increases in rainfall. For example, in the Northeast and Midwest increases in heavy precipitation events could cause problems for the water infrastructure, as sewer systems and water treatment plants are overwhelmed by the increased volumes of water.  Heavy downpours can increase the amount of runoff into rivers and lakes, washing sediment, nutrients, pollutants, trash, animal waste, and other materials into water http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/water.html supplies, making them unusable, unsafe, or 

Impact on coastal areas Throughout the 20th century, the global rise in sea level has contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion, and ecosystem losses. Rising temperatures have led to loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality.  This has consequently led to an increase in sea level, displacement of people, loss of livelihoods, and submergence of lowlying areas. 

http://know.climateofconcern.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=article&i

Impact on coastal areas The coastline of the United States is highly populated. Coastal and ocean activities, such as marine transportation of goods, offshore energy drilling, resource extraction, fish cultivation, recreation, and tourism are integral to the nation's economy.  Coastal areas are also home to species and habitats that provide many benefits to society and natural ecosystems. 

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html

Impact on coastal areas Climate change could affect coastal areas in a variety of ways. Coasts are sensitive to sea level rise, changes in the frequency and intensity of storms, increases in precipitation, and warmer ocean temperatures.  In addition, rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) are causing the oceans to absorb more of the gas and become more acidic. This rising acidity could have significant impacts on coastal and marine http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html ecosystems. 

Impact on coastal areas During the 20th century, global sea level rose by roughly seven inches.  In a particular location, the change in sea level that is observed will be affected by the increase in global sea level as well as land movement up or down. 

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html

Impact on coastal areas The motion of land can be caused by melting ice or tectonic movement. The "local" or "relative" sea level refer to both the global change in sea level and the effects of land motion.  Where the land mass is sinking, relative sea level rise rate is larger than the global rate. Some of the fastest rates of relative sea level rise in the United States are occurring in areas where the land is sinking http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html 

Impact on species and natural areas Our planet is warming faster than at any time in the past 10,000 years. With these changes, species have to adapt to new climate patterns  Because of global warming, many consequences have resulted from human emissions of greenhouse gases.  The consequences include habitat loss; shifts in climatic conditions and in habitats that sur migrational capabilities; altered competitive relationships. http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/species/problems/climate_change/ 

Impact on species and natural areas 

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Evidence suggests that the warming of the past century already has resulted in marked ecological changes, including changes in growing seasons, species ranges, and patterns of seasonal breeding. The fate of many species in a rapidly warming world will likely depend on their ability to migrate away from increasingly less favorable climatic conditions to new areas that meet their physical, biological, and climatic needs.

http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/species/problems/climate_change/

Impact on species and natural areas World Wide Fund (WWF) scientists have estimated that most species on this planet (including plants) will have to "move" faster than 1,000 meters per year if they are to keep within the climate zone which they need for survival.  Many species will not be able to redistribute themselves fast enough to keep up with the coming changes.  These species, as far as we know given present knowledge, may well become extinct. 

http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/species/problems/climate_change/


We are already seeing that Danish nature is being affected by climate change. This may be expected to continue in step with changing climatic patterns. Some of the changes in ecosystem composition will be irreversible.

http://en.klimatilpasning.dk/sectors/nature/climate-change-impact-on-


Habitats, ecosystems and species are affected differently by climate factors, and we can generally foresee three types of climate impacts likely to be the most influential on Danish nature: ◦ 1) Increased biological production in some ecosystems, as a result of higher temperatures and longer growing seasons ◦ 2) Increased nutrient load and thus increased overgrowth and oxygen depletion in Danish waters as a result of increased precipitation and altered precipitation patterns; and ◦ 3) Increased erosion and flooding of low-lying coasts, tidal areas and river valleys as a result of sea-level rise, increased precipitation and altered precipitation patterns.

http://en.klimatilpasning.dk/sectors/nature/climate-change-impact-on-

Impact on species and natural areas These effects will generally mean that a number of habitat types will become fragile and some species will be at higher risk of disappearing, because they have no possibility for moving to other areas or time to adapt.  Ecosystems may become less resilient, and thus more vulnerable, and irreversible changes might occur. The challenge of reaching established goals for nature and water quality could therefore grow even further and require http://en.klimatilpasning.dk/sectors/nature/climate-change-impact-onadditional effort. 

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