Haroon 1 --------------------Zoya Mirza SS 100, Section 16 21 December 2016 Brexit: Britain on the Verge of a Dire Mistake Ever since the Age of Enlightenment, Europe has been seen as a breeding ground for liberal thoughts and ideas, allowing the triumph of reason over tradition. Liberal thought has historically entailed the ethics of pluralist values, open-mindedness, and multiculturalism. These principles laid down the foundation for humanitarian and economic cooperation. The case of Britain wanting to exit the European Union (EU) is particularly alarming in this context because a country that has been so pivotal in disseminating progressive thought, now wishes to detach itself from a union that stands for those values. While Britain can potentially benefit from not having to pay exorbitant hip fees to the EU on a weekly basis, the drawback of losing access to the European market is a cost that is enormous. Brexit is an abbreviation for British exit from the EU (Hunt and Wheeler). The proponents of Brexit endorsed leaving the EU because they wanted to redirect the hip fees to other avenues, and gain absolute control over migration policies. A polarizing referendum was held on 23 June 2016 in which the Leave campaign was victorious after collecting 51.9 per cent of the votes (Electoral Commission). These results have highlighted an upsurge in nationalism, protectionism, and populism due to the rejuvenation of far-right politics across the world; Donald J. Trump in the United States of America, the Five Star Alliance in Italy, Podemos in Spain, and the Front National in are examples of this phenomenon (Pettifor 131). One can actively scrutinize Brexit to understand the
Haroon 2 nationalist mode of thinking that is currently widespread across the nation, and it is potentially the most significant as it might set a worrying precedent for other nations to follow suit, since similar movements have gripped public attention in Italy, , and Scotland. Although leaving the European Union might appear to be a democratic decision, Brexit could potentially be harmful in the long-run as the results of the referendum were skewed by a manipulative Leave campaign, Britain’s trade links might diminish resulting in the stagnation of economic growth, and it could lead to an alarming rate of unemployment for migrants that will be galvanized by intolerance. The premise for Britain to go ahead with Brexit is the referendum. Despite it being a democratic process that represents the will of the people, the polarisation and complexities in this scenario are far too great to be ignored. The Leave campaign garnered via means of manipulation and by taking advantage of the strife that was present amongst the masses due to the polarization of wealth, a decline in wages, and insufficient attention being given to the health and education sector. The core principles of the campaign were centered on directing 350 million pounds to the National Health Service (NHS) instead of the EU and implementing a stricter migration policy through a points-based system. These claims were used to substantiate the nationalist thought that was being disseminated by the officials who were spearheading Brexit. After a favorable result in the referendum, two of the main figures of the campaign, Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson, reneged on the promises they had made. When asked about the funding pledge on ITV’s Good Morning Britain program, Nigel Farage responded by saying that he could not guarantee it and he itted that it was one of the mistakes the Leave campaign had made (Stone). Boris Johnson had proposed the adoption of a points-based system to curb the problem of immigration which he considered to be “completely out of control.” After British
Haroon 3 Prime Minister Theresa May disapproved of this policy, Boris abandoned his plans (Merrick). The Leave advocates backtracked on two claims which were the focal points of their campaign, and this shows how the opinion of the population was swayed through propaganda and manipulation—without the guarantee of an inevitable shift in policy. Moreover, during their campaign, there was no mention of the benefits of the EU and this led to citizens making uninformed decisions during the voting process. Voters were urged to “take back control” as rhetoric was used instead of reason in order to persuade people to vote in favour of leaving (ITV). A Sky News programme questioned prominent Leave campaigner Michael Gove about Brexit in light of criticism by countries that form the Group of 7 (G7) bloc, financial institutions, and think-tanks—to which he responded by saying that the people “have had enough of the experts” (Deacon). His response encapsulates the neglect that has been shown by the campaigners towards logic. The arguments of the Leave campaigners concerning the NHS and immigration in particular were “cloaked in jingoistic nationalism” (D’Souza 20). By utilizing propaganda as a primary means of persuasion, the Leave campaign completely ignored some of the negative consequences of leaving the EU. These consequences will most notably affect their economy in the long-run because of a lack of stability. Brexit could directly affect the existing trade links Britain has with member states which might cause the stagnation of economic growth. Before analyzing the impact of a withdrawal on Britain’s economy, it is important to be cognizant of the role of the union in stimulating economies. The EU fosters economic cooperation, encourages trade, and promotes interdependence through the regulation of the European Single Market in which no barriers to trade or the movement of labour and capital exist (European Union). Since its formation, the EU has become bigger than any individual economy across the globe. Its ascendancy cultivates
Haroon 4 economic growth which is an important macroeconomic goal for every government, and economic integration with neighbouring countries leads to the achievement of that target. Britain reaps the benefits of this union which positively impacts their economy. Moreover, it is heavily reliant on the European Single Market with regards to trade and has greatly prospered because of its existence. Britain should ideally be working towards increased economic integration with the EU instead of opting out because 44.6 per cent of their exports go to member states and 53.2 per cent of their imports are from member states (The National Archives). Due to this web of interdependence, Brexit will also negatively affect the states that are mutually dependent on Britain. The impact this decision will have on the global economy is a cause for concern which was indicated in a t declaration by the G7 bloc. The declaration stated that Brexit would “reverse the trend towards greater global trade and investment, and the jobs they create and is a further serious risk to growth” (Asthana). These promises came at an opportune time given Britain’s position in the global market, where uncertainty had already enveloped Britain’s economy; there has been a fall in the value of their currency after the referendum. This is a glaring indicator of the potential risk they face. Following Theresa May's announcement that Britain would begin formal Brexit negotiations by the end of March, the value of the pound fell to its lowest in three years, taking its decline from 1.30 euros prior to the referendum to a low of 1.09 euros in October (BBC). A failing currency could have a regressive impact on their economy as it leads to higher prices and unemployment. One must couple this with the istrative complications involved with a modern-day exit from the EU. Detachment from the European Single Market means that Britain will have to initiate the cumbersome process of negotiating new trade deals, and this will have to be done while their economy is shrouded in uncertainty. There is a concern that the new trade agreements they make
Haroon 5 might not be as beneficial compared to what being a part of the EU offered them. Failure to replicate the stability and opportunities they previously had might lead to a decline in the productivity and efficiency in of economic output. Under the premise of bilateral trade agreements, Britain’s gross domestic product (GDP) could lower by 6.2 per cent by 2030 as a result of leaving the EU (HM Treasury). Another concern for Britain will be a potential decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) following Brexit. FDI is essential for an economy as it improves productivity which consequently increases economic output and wage levels. About half of Britain’s FDI stock is from member states of the EU. In addition, investors and firms from many countries which are not a part of the union have considered Britain to be an entry point which provides them with investment opportunities across the European Single Market. These opportunities arise as a result of the policies of the EU, such as the free movement of labour and capital. If this gateway will be closed, then Britain might face a decline in the influx of investment and this will bring considerable harm to their economy in the long-run. As a result of Brexit, the Centre for Economic Performance has estimated a 22 per cent fall in FDI for Britain over the next decade. From these approximations, one can ascertain the consequences the British economy might face after a withdrawal from the EU. Problems such as decreasing output, falling wages, and unemployment are likely to worsen the socio-economic condition of the country. Any macroeconomic forecasts of the national economy must for demographic changes from a shifting cultural ethos. Since strict immigration policies are likely to be implemented after Brexit, there is a sense of trepidation amongst the migrant workers because of the possibility of unemployment. These policies might have a detrimental effect on the economy due to a loss of jobs. Large proportions of EU migrants in Britain are highly skilled and have
Haroon 6 been integrated successfully. These workers benefit the Britain’s economy greatly because of their contribution to economic output and productivity. Hence, the reformation of policies that affect migrants might be counter-intuitive. According to Former British Prime Minister David Cameron, “an estimated three million jobs are linked to trade with the EU” (Ashworth-Hayes). This helps understand the correlation between the success of firms and the free movement of labour that would be hindered as a result of Brexit. An analysis done for the CBI by PricewaterhouseCoopers indicated that leaving the EU could cost Britain’s economy 100 billion pounds by 2020, and 950,000 jobs could potentially be lost (Kollewe). Britain’s multiculturalism, which has hitherto remained a source of social and economic pride, may now be threatened—thus isolating the country from Europe and the wider world. This isolation from the rest of the world is being driven by civilian discontentment. A decline in the wages of British workers is one of the contributing factors to the status quo. Simon Tilford illustrated a strong causal link between the decline in these wages and an increase in immigration. Net migration to Britain has increased in the past years with a rise in the need for skilled labour. The immigration of EU citizens was estimated to be 270,000 in December 2015 compared to 264,000 in December 2014 (Migration Statistics Quarterly Report). A decrease in the social status of the white working class because of declining wages is seen as a contributing factor to the rising for Brexit with regards to the migration laws. By linking these concerns to the migration, the real cause of this problem is not tackled – the government’s failure in public policy with regards to the supply-side. EU migrants should not be blamed as they earn their jobs through meritocratic principles and are net contributors to the economy. Not only does their integration lead to economic growth, it also creates a need for the local services those individuals will require to fulfill their personal needs. Enrico Moretti, in his book The New
Haroon 7 Geography of Jobs, indicates that the inflow of innovation and expertise through skilled labour increases productivity and has a multiplier effect on the economy as the demand for local services increases (58). However, the positive influence of migrants is not a ubiquitous thought. Populism has bred ignorance in Britain, and the results of the referendum are a reflection of that. A culmination of ignorance and dissatisfaction amongst the population has led to an escalation in xenophobic incidents. Home Office figures on hate crime show that there was an alarming increase in racist and religious abuse related incidents recorded by the police in England and Wales in 2016. The number of racially or religiously aggravated offences increased by 41 per cent in July 2016 compared to the previous year, and there was an evident increase in the number of hate crimes after the EU referendum. These figures signify radicalisation and the growth of intolerance but perhaps the incident that epitomizes bigotry was the murder of Jo Cox, a Labour Member of Parliament. She was an advocate of the Remain campaign who was in favour of immigration and took pride in diversity. While the murderer was being prosecuted, he stated that his name was “death to traitors, freedom for Britain” (Calamur, Vasilogambros and Ford). In response to this tragic incident, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn stated that she was killed by a “well of hatred” (Mason, Booth and Dodd). This is one anecdote resulting from the complex mesh of economic anxieties and xenophobia which fed the Brexit campaign, and has only gained momentum from its success. Intolerant and exclusionary sentiments are hiding behind the façade of a seemingly democratic referendum. While Brexit appears to be a democratic decision because of the outcome of the referendum, its legitimacy can still be questioned. Looking at the result on the basis of the nations that Britain comprises of, Scotland and Northern Ireland opted to remain a part of the EU while England and Wales chose to leave (Electoral Commission). England is controlling foreign
Haroon 8 affairs after the referendum and making decisions that are not collective. A lack of consideration towards the sentiment of the Remain voters could potentially lead to political fragmentation within Britain. The Scottish National Party is opposing Brexit as withdrawal from the EU is at odds with their majority Remain vote. The government of Scotland is considering holding a second independence referendum to possibly leave Britain. In response to the result of the Brexit referendum, First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon stated that the disintegration of Britain is "highly likely” (The Week). To prevent this from happening, England should not neglect the will of the majority in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Moreover, polarisation amongst the voters was present in England itself. London, a city with the highest number of migrants across Britain, embodied inclusiveness by voting in favour of remaining in the EU. With increased exposure and interaction, misinformation regarding migrants is dispelled. This misinformation is present amongst the lower socio-economic classes in Britain as large proportions of people from areas with lower levels of schooling were in favour of leaving. A survey conducted on the day of the referendum indicates that almost half of the Leave voters’ main reason for seeking autonomy was the notion that “decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK” (Lord Ashcroft). This proves that many people were unaware that the EU did not interfere with government policies. They were also uninformed about the benefits that came as a result of hip. Hence, this referendum should not form the basis of a decision of this magnitude. The advocates of Brexit took advantage of civilian discontentment to gain for their political agendas, and this was reflected in the outcome of the referendum. As soon as favourable results came in, they withdrew the claims which were made regarding public policy. Slogans such as “Take Back Our Country” were used as devices for propaganda in order to cloud the judgment of millions. If only those voters had asked themselves one simple question before
Haroon 9 voting in the referendum—take back from what? The EU does not dictate the domestic policies of Britain; it merely assists them by promoting economic growth that comes as a result of free trade and the free movement of labour. When resistance to the notion of separation is present within Scotland and Northern Ireland, England should not dictate foreign policy. The decision to leave the EU tramples on ideas that stem from liberalism and plurality. It might also take a significant toll on Britain’s economy which will become evident once they formally exit. Brexit is a manifestation of populism that is stimulating xenophobia and giving citizens a sense of entitlement that defies meritocracy and inclusiveness. Radicalisation within Britain is bound to escalate as they are currently casting aside idealism in favour of populism, democracy in favour of nationalism, and humanity in favour of intolerance. This entire situation is a reminder of how much divide exists within our society. The spectre of bigotry will continue to loom until globalisation is fully embraced. The mindset of a country that has historically imposed change on others needs to change itself.
Haroon 10 Works Cited Ashcroft, Lord. “How the United Kingdom voted on Thursday… and why.” Lord Ashcroft Polls. 24 June 2016. Web. 25 December 2016. . Ashworth-Hayes, Sam. “Will 3 million jobs be lost if we quit EU?” InFacts. 15 March 2016. Web. 21 December 2016.
. Asthana, Anushka. “Brexit would pose 'serious risk' to global growth, say G7 leaders.” The Guardian. 27 May 2016. Web. 21 December 2016. <www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/27/brexit-would-pose-a-serious-risk-to-globalgrowth-say-g7-leaders>. “Boris Johnson: Brexit is about 'taking back control' of immigration”. ITV. 1 December 2016. Web. 21 December 2016 <www.itv.com/news/2016-12-01/boris-johnson-brexit-is-abouttaking-back-control-of-immigration>. “Brexit Britain: What has actually happened so far?” BBC News. 22 December 2016. Web. 25 December 2016. <www.bbc.com/news/business-36956418>. Calamur, Krishnadev, Matt Vasilogambros, and Matt Ford. Jo Cox Killing: What We Know.” The Atlantic. 18 June 2016. Web. 21 December 2016. <www.theatlantic.com/news/archive/2016/06/uk-mp-jo-cox-attacked/487316> Deacon, Michael. “Michael Gove’s guide to Britain’s greatest enemy... the experts.” The Telegraph. 10 June 2016. Web. 21 December 2016.
Haroon 11 <www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/10/michael-goves-guide-to-britains-greatestenemy-the-experts>. Dhingra, Swati, Gianmarco Ottoviano, Thomas Sampson, and John Van Reenen. "The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment in the UK." Centre for Economic Performance (2016). Web. 21 December 2016.
. D’Souza, Radha. “Right, Left and Right: From Great Britain to Little England, via Brexit.” Economic and Political Weekly 51.25 (2016): 20. Web. 21 December 2016. <www.epw.in/journal/2016/25/web-exclusives/right-left-and-right-brexit-and-rise-littleengland.html?0=ip__no_cache%3D0d90487c275565dfd4bc45ae566fbd0f>. “EU referendum results.” Electoral Commission. Web. 21 December 2016. <www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-andreferendums/past-elections-and-referendums/eu-referendum/electorate-and-countinformation>. HM Government. Home Office. Hate Crime, England and Wales, 2015/16. By Hannah Corcoran and Kevin Smith. 13 October 2016. Print. <www.gov.uk/government/s/system/s/attachment_data/file/559319/hate-crime1516-hosb1116.pdf>. Hunt, Alex, and Brian Wheeler. “Brexit: All you need to know about the UK leaving the EU.” BBC News. 12 December 2016. Web. 21 December 2016. <www.bbc.com/news/ukpolitics-32810887>.
Haroon 12 HM Government. HM Treasury analysis: the long-term economic impact of EU hip and the alternatives. Print. <www.gov.uk/government/s/system/s/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury _analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_hip_web.pdf>. “HM Treasury Analysis shows leaving EU would cost British households £4,300 per year.” HM Government. 18 Apr. 2016. Web. 21 Dec. 2016. <www.gov.uk/government/news/hmtreasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year>. “How important is the European Union to UK trade and investment?” Office for National Statistics. 26 June 2015. Web. 21 December 2016. <www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/international-transactions/outward-foreign-sstatistics/how-important-is-the-european-union-to-uk-trade-and-investment-/styeu.html>. Kollewe, Julia. “Brexit could cost £100bn and nearly 1m jobs, CBI warns.” The Guardian. 21 March 2016. Web. 21 December 2016. <www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/21/brexit-could-cost-100bn-and-nearly-1mjobs-cbi-warns>. Mason, Rowena, Robert Booth and Vikram Dodd. “Jo Cox killed by 'well of hatred', says Jeremy Corbyn.” The Guardian. 17 June 2016. Web. 21 December 2016. <www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/17/david-cameron-and-jeremy-corbyn-to-payt-tribute-to-jo-cox> Merrick, Rob. “Boris Johnson abandons plan for points-based immigration system promised in Brexit campaign.” Independent. 9 September 2016. Web. 21 December 2016.
Haroon 13 <www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-immigration-brexitembarrassed-as-he-its-points-based-immigration-system-wont-a7234821.html>. “Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: May 2016”. Office for National Statistics. 26 May 2016. Web. 21 December 2016. <www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/international migration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk>. Moretti, Enrico. The New Geography of Jobs. N.p.: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2012. 58. Print. Pettifor, Ann. "Brexit and Its Consequences." Globalizations 14.1 (2016): 131. Web. 21 December 2016. <www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14747731.2016.1229953>. “Scottish independence: Sturgeon lays out Brexit options.” The Week. 21 December 2016. Web. 25 December 2016. <www.theweek.co.uk/scottish-independence/55716/scottishindependence-sturgeon-lays-out-brexit-options>. Stone, Jon. “Nigel Farage backtracks on Leave campaign's '£350m for the NHS' pledge hours after result.” Independent. 24 June 2016. Web. 21 December 2016. <www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-result-nigel-farage-nhspledge-disowns-350-million-pounds-a7099906.html>. “The EU in brief.” European Union. Web. 21 December 2016.
. Tilford, Simon. “Britain, immigration and Brexit.” Centre for European Reform. Web. 21 December 2016. <www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/bulletin_105_st_article1.pdf>.